Thesis SENT has climbed in steps from 0.0125 to 0.024 over 30 days and is now hitting a ceiling at 0.0240–0.0250 for the third time (0.02471 on 26 Sep, 0.02498 on 4 Oct, 0.02441 today). Third tests usually break, and it is holding well against BTC: +11% on the week and +70% on the month. But each test left an upper wick. The 4 Oct push came on 14.2M volume and still closed 7% below its high, so sellers are still active at this level. The trade is a clean break of the 0.025 round number. If it breaks, the 0.0203–0.025 range projects about 0.0298. Crowd read Holders who rode it up 79% sell at 0.0245–0.025 every time price gets there, and the pullbacks get bought. That pattern is absorption, not panic. The coin is not on the CoinGecko trending list yet, so retail has not piled in. That favours continuation once 0.025 goes, but Greed at 70 and RSI 70 mean a failed break could drop quickly back to 0.0205–0.021. Watch for A 4h close above 0.0251 on volume above the 4h average (over about 1.5M per bar), and then the next 4h candle holding above 0.0247. Buy on the trade through 0.02512. Skip it if the breakout candle prints an upper wick longer than its body. Wrong if A 4h close below 0.0229 before 0.025 breaks, or a break above 0.025 that closes back under 0.0245 on the same day (a fourth rejection, which turns the 0.024–0.025 zone into a double top). A daily close under the 4 Oct open of 0.02226 would also kill the coil. Exit rules none set Managed exit (half at 1R, trail 1R) active, +0.25R so far

Screener volume wake scored 59 (reasons were not kept on this call) Project Tokenomist puts the next unlock at 22 Jan 2027 (community/airdrop allocation), so no cliff falls inside this horizon. I found no hacks, delistings or new listings in the last two weeks; recent coverage is routine price writeups. The project is an open-source AGI play backed by Founders Fund and Pantera, sitting in the AI narrative alongside TAO and FET, which are both trending today. Risks · Three upper-wick rejections at 0.0244–0.0250. If the break comes on falling volume, it is a trap. · Price is 15% above the 20-day EMA with daily RSI at 70. The trend is stretched and could shake out to 0.021 before continuing. · Kraken SENT/USD shows only about $206k of 24h quote volume, against roughly $15M across all venues. Expect thin books and slippage on Kraken, and moves will be driven by Binance/Bitget flow. · The market is red today: total cap is down 2% and only 34% of the top 200 are up. A BTC pullback from just under its 20-day high would drag the AI alts down with it. · Only 21% of supply is circulating (FDV is about $816M against a $172M market cap), so supply is a steady overhang even with no unlock due soon. Sources https://tokenomist.ai/sentient https://coinmarketcap.com/cmc-ai/sentient/latest-updates/ https://dailypolitical.com/2026/10/04/sentient-sent-price-up-1-4-this-week.html Features at call time pct_1d: 2.03 pct_7d: 13.62 vol_ratio_eff: 2.85 rsi_1d: 70.48 bbw_pct_rank: 80.20 dist_to_high_20d_pct: 5.29 consec_green_1d: 3 overhead_supply_share: 0.03 upper_wick_ratio_1d: 0.46 lower_wick_ratio_1d: 0.22 rs_vs_btc_7d: 11.48 from_ath_pct: -48.11