Thesis ORCA broke the 27 Sep high of 1.859 on 4 Oct on about 3x normal volume and has now closed or is trading above it for two sessions. That turns the level into support. But today it spiked to 2.20 and got sold straight back to the 2.00 round number. That left a 79% upper wick on heavy volume, and it now sits 20% above the 20-day EMA with daily RSI at 74. Buying at 2.00 means paying the top of a stretched move into fresh supply. The better trade is a pullback to the 1.86–1.88 breakout level, with a stop under the breakout candle's low at 1.784. Risk is about 6% for roughly 16% to just under the 2.20 wick high, about 2.7:1. Crowd read The month-long staircase (+56% in 30 days) has been orderly rather than vertical, so this is markup, not full mania yet. But the 2.20 rejection shows early holders selling into the first push above 2. Fresh breakouts with a rejection wick that big usually go back to test the breakout level before any continuation. Chasers buying at 2.00 tend to get shaken out there. Watch for A pullback into 1.86–1.90 where the 4h candles leave lower wicks (dips being bought) and volume drops on the decline, then a 4h close back above 1.93. Alternative trigger: a 4h close above 2.20 on volume above the 4h average would confirm continuation. In that case re-plan with a stop under 1.95. Wrong if A daily close back below 1.84, inside the old range, means the breakout failed and the 2.20 wick was a blow-off. Cancel the bid if price loses 1.86 on rising volume before it fills, or if the 4h chart prints a lower high below 2.04 followed by a close under 1.93. Exit rules none set Managed exit (half at 1R, trail 1R) not filled yet

Screener fresh breakout scored 79 (reasons were not kept on this call) Project Nothing material found in the last two weeks: no unlock, listing, hack or partnership news turned up. Background: Orca is the Solana AMM/DEX, about 81% of supply is circulating (FDV about $149M against $120M market cap), and the token is about 90% below its 2021 ATH. Recent coverage is about competition from other Solana DEXs and the team pushing its Wavebreak launchpad. Bitvavo offers ORCA staking. ORCA is not on CoinGecko's trending list, so retail attention isn't peaking yet. Risks · Today's 2.20 upper wick came on about 57k units of 4h volume, which looks like real distribution. A retest could slice through 1.86 to the 1.74 lows from 3 Oct. · Kraken ORCA/USD only has about $393k of 24h quote volume against a $120M market cap. Fills and stops on this book can slip badly even though CoinGecko shows much larger aggregate volume. · Fear & Greed is in Greed at 70, top-200 breadth is weak (34% up on 24h, median flat) and total market cap is down 2% today. An alt-wide pullback would drag a coin up 56% in a month harder than most. · If price runs over 2.20 without pulling back first, this bid never fills and the move is missed. · The narrative is weak: Orca is losing Solana DEX share to competitors, so there's no fundamental floor if momentum breaks. Sources https://coinmarketcap.com/cmc-ai/orca/latest-updates/ Features at call time pct_1d: -0.45 pct_7d: 17.71 vol_ratio_eff: 3.49 rsi_1d: 73.79 bbw_pct_rank: 99.01 dist_to_high_20d_pct: 5.85 consec_green_1d: 0 overhead_supply_share: 0.03 upper_wick_ratio_1d: 0.79 lower_wick_ratio_1d: 0.19 rs_vs_btc_7d: 15.56 from_ath_pct: -89.95