Thesis ATH tested the 0.00744-0.00746 resistance twice (21 Sep and 28 Sep), each time with a long wick that got sold. On 4 Oct a high-volume 4h candle broke through and spiked to 0.00849, but the day closed at 0.00775, and price has drifted back to 0.00737, just under the broken level. Volume has dried up (0.22x average today) and the 4h lows at 0.00723-0.00728 are holding, so this is a soft retest, not a confirmed one. The bid only makes sense near the 4h lows with a stop under the 0.0070 shelf where the breakout started. Even then, reward to the 0.0080 wick high is only about 2.2:1 while the level has not been reclaimed. Crowd read The early buyers of the 18 Sep to 4 Oct run (+56% in 30d, RSI 70, 17% above EMA20) sold into the 0.0085 spike. Late chasers are now underwater and bleeding out on falling volume. In a Greed 73 market with flat breadth, a failed first breakout like this usually chops or tests lower, often down toward 0.0070, before buyers come back. Watch for There are two paths. (1) Better: a 4h close back above 0.00753 on volume above 1.5x average, which reclaims the breakout level and the last 4h high; I would then upgrade to long with a stop under 0.0072. (2) The limit fills at 0.00728 and a lower wick holds the 0.00723 4h lows, i.e. dip buyers show up. Before acting on either, check the token unlock calendar for 6-15 Oct 2026. Wrong if A 4h close below 0.0071 (the low of the 4 Oct breakout candle) means the whole breakout has been given back and the 0.0070 shelf is next. Losing the 0.00723 4h lows on rising volume would also say sellers are in control. Exit rules · close below 0.0071 (4h): Back below the breakout candle's low: the 4 Oct breakout has fully failed · btc drop pct 4.0: BTC is giving up its uptrend; a high-beta small cap won't hold its retest · no progress hours 48.0: No bounce off the retest within two days means buyers aren't defending the level Managed exit (half at 1R, trail 1R) active, -0.06R so far

Screener retest scored 64 (reasons were not kept on this call) Project Aethir runs a decentralised GPU-as-a-service network (AI and cloud gaming) and is backed by Animoca. Circulating supply is 47.9% of 42B max, and FDV ($308M) is about 2.1x market cap. Historical calendars show a 1.26B ATH cliff unlock on 12 Oct 2025, so the schedule has big mid-October releases; I could not confirm the 2026 equivalent because I hit the search limit. Previously noted: a Folks Finance lending market and Tribe Phase 1 launch. I found no hacks, delistings or legal trouble. Risks · Aethir has had large cliff unlocks in mid-October: 1.26B ATH on 12 Oct 2025, about 12.7% of the float then. Circulating supply is only 47.9%. I could not confirm whether a similar unlock falls on or around 12 Oct 2026. If it does, it lands inside this window and would explain the selling into the spike. · Kraken ATH/USD trades only about $158k a day against roughly $148M market cap. Price discovery happens on other venues, so Kraken candles can wick sharply through stops. · DePIN is not waking (theme status 'waking: false', 42.9% up). RLC's +193% week is taking the theme's attention, and ATH is a follower, not the leader. · There have been three upper-wick rejections in two weeks (0.00744, 0.00746, 0.00849). Supply between 0.0075 and 0.0085 is heavy. · Total market cap is down 2.8% in 24h with only 30% of the top 200 green. Any risk-off move hits extended small caps first. Sources https://coindar.org/en/coin/aethir/calendar https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/6e2cf-aethir-aptos-lead-token-unlocks-this-week Features at call time pct_1d: -1.86 pct_7d: 21.02 vol_ratio_eff: 0.91 rsi_1d: 70.93 bbw_pct_rank: 91.09 dist_to_high_20d_pct: 15.20 consec_green_1d: 0 overhead_supply_share: 0.11 upper_wick_ratio_1d: 0.10 lower_wick_ratio_1d: 0.47 rs_vs_btc_7d: 18.02 from_ath_pct: -94.01