Thesis VELO broke the 0.005725 Sep-25 high on 1 Oct and has stayed above it since, setting higher lows at 0.00536, 0.00547 and 0.00572. That looks like an ascending triangle under a flat top at about 0.0069. The trouble is that top has now been spiked into three times (1, 2 and 5 Oct), each time on 45-48M volume, and every spike closed well off its high. Someone is selling every pump into 0.0069. A bid back at the 0.00575 retest with a stop under the 3-4 Oct base gives about 2.5:1 to just under the triple top. On a thin Kraken book with an 0.8% spread, though, it is a watch, not a buy now. Crowd read Each volume burst draws chasers who get sold into near 0.0069. The quiet days in between (9-11M) show nobody steps in without a spike. That pattern usually ends in one of two ways: a fourth push that finally clears the top, or the higher lows give out and price drops back into the 0.0050-0.0055 range. With market Greed at 73 and only 29% of the top 200 up today, the backdrop favours the second. Watch for Two possible triggers. First, a limit fill at 0.00570-0.00578 where the next 4h candle holds above 0.0057 with a lower wick. Second, a daily close above 0.0069 on volume of 40M or more, which breaks the triple top; that would turn this into a fresh breakout aimed at 0.0076, but you would need a new stop around 0.0062. Don't buy a spike into 0.0065-0.0069 that has no daily close above it. Wrong if A 4h close back below 0.0057 means the retest of the 0.005725 breakout level failed and price is back inside the old range. Another spike that wicks to 0.0069 and closes below 0.0062 would be a fourth rejection and confirm distribution. Exit rules · close below 0.0057 (4h): Back below the 0.005725 breakout level: the retest failed · btc drop pct 4.0: BTC dropping 4% will drag thin DeFi alts and the higher-low structure won't hold · no progress hours 48.0: If the retest fill hasn't bounced within 2 days, the buyers who defended the level aren't there Managed exit (half at 1R, trail 1R) hit stop, -1.00R

Screener retest scored 68 (reasons were not kept on this call) Project No unlock, listing, delisting or hack news for Velo Protocol (Stellar/BNB, DWF Labs portfolio) in the last two weeks. The only recent VELO headline is the Aerodrome/Velodrome token migration on Coinbase, which is a different project. About 73% of supply is circulating (FDV $145M vs market cap $106M), so dilution overhang is moderate. Risks · Three rejections at 0.0069 with volume fading in between look like a seller (possibly a market maker; it is a DWF Labs portfolio coin) offloading into every pump · Kraken VELO/USD traded only about $228k in 24h, with roughly $5k of asks within 2% of mid. Spread is 0.82% and a £2,000 round trip costs 1.32%, about 19% of the 7% stop distance · ATR is 11.6% a day, so normal noise can reach the 0.00534 stop in one candle · Ticker confusion: the Aerodrome/Velodrome VELO migration (Coinbase, 2-4 Nov) is a different token, but headlines about it could cause stray volume or false signals · Breadth is weak: median top-200 change is flat on the week and the DeFi theme is not waking (rs_7d +2.75) Sources https://cryptobriefing.com/coinbase-aero-velo-token-migration/ https://www.coinbase.com/price/velo https://coinmarketcap.com/cmc-ai/velo/latest-updates/ Features at call time pct_1d: -4.30 pct_7d: 15.12 vol_ratio_eff: 2.47 rsi_1d: 63.00 bbw_pct_rank: 84.16 dist_to_high_20d_pct: 17.02 consec_green_1d: 0 overhead_supply_share: 0.15 upper_wick_ratio_1d: 0.16 lower_wick_ratio_1d: 0.39 rs_vs_btc_7d: 12.09 from_ath_pct: -99.73