#43 MET Meteora · kraken MET/USD
watch active · volume wake · crowd accumulation · confidence 30% · 2026-10-06T10:13 UTC
Theme: DEX · 4/22 awake · week +4% vs market +0% · this coin: early
Book at the time of the call: £500 in+out ≈0.49%, £2,000 in+out ≈0.88% · spread 0.29% · bar 55% (uptrend, narrow (26% up))
Entry (stop_trigger)
£0.2417
$0.32Target 1
£0.2870
+18.8%Target 2
£0.3172
+31.2%Stop
£0.2190
-9.4% · R:R 2.0Result
+0.56
best 5.97% · worst -3.47%Paper book
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not sized (below the alert bar or a watch/avoid call)entrytargetsstopcandles in the market's quote currency; markers: call made, filled, resolved. A timeframe not cached yet is fetched from the venue when you pick it.
Thesis
MET ran from 0.19 to 0.423 in September, then pulled back to 0.26–0.29. For the past week it has been coiling between about 0.286 and 0.319, and 4h band width is in the bottom 4% of its range. This morning one 4h candle printed 496k volume, about 24x normal, and lifted price from 0.2915 to 0.3124, just under the coil top at 0.3189. That candle is the wake-up. The trigger is a trade through 0.32. The stop goes under that candle's low and the 0.29 handle. To get 2:1, target1 has to sit at the 0.38 shelf from the late-September highs, and that is a long way to travel in 72h.
Crowd read
Volume had died to 1–7k per 4h bar over the weekend, which means the post-pump crowd stopped caring. A sudden volume burst out of that boredom is usually early buyers stepping in, not retail. Buyers trapped from 0.33 to 0.38 between 23 and 28 September will sell into any rally at break-even. Expect the first push to stall around 0.33–0.344.
Watch for
A 4h candle that trades and closes above 0.32 on volume clearly above the coil's baseline, with the next 4h candle holding above 0.3189. Rejection wicks at 0.3189–0.329 mean wait. If it triggers, take partial profit around 0.343 to cut risk.
Wrong if
No trade unless price trades through 0.32. After a trigger, the idea is dead if the move fades back into the coil and closes a 4h candle below 0.31, or if today's volume spike goes unanswered and volume falls back to weekend levels.
Exit rules
· close below 0.31 (4h): Back inside the coil after triggering: the breakout failed
· btc drop pct 4.0: BTC breaking down will drag a thin Solana DEX token with it
· no progress hours 36.0: A volume wake should follow through quickly; if it hasn't, the buyer has finished
Managed exit (half at 1R, trail 1R)
active, +0.56R so far
Screener
volume wake scored 63
(reasons were not kept on this call)
Project
No hacks, delistings or legal news found in the last two weeks. Monthly linear unlocks of about 0.73% of supply (team and ecosystem reserve) are scheduled, with the next on 23 October. The team has been buying back tokens in earlier periods. Circulating supply is 56% of the total and FDV is about $311M.
Risks
· Kraken MET/USD trades only about $179k a day, while global volume is around £8.4M. A single print can fake the breakout on this venue.
· Several layers of overhead supply sit between entry and target1: 0.329 (2 Oct high), 0.344 (30 Sep high), 0.36 and 0.383. Each one is a place for trapped buyers to sell.
· The wider market is soft. Only 26% of the top 200 are up on the day, total market cap is down 2.8% in 24h, and Fear & Greed is at 73 (Greed), where breakouts fail more often.
· ORCA leads the DEX theme with a 57% week. Attention may already be in the leader rather than rotating into MET.
· The monthly unlock of about 7.3M MET (0.73% of supply, team plus ecosystem reserve) lands on 23 October. That is outside this horizon but could weigh on sentiment as it gets closer.
Sources
https://tokenomist.ai/meteora
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/meteora
https://coinmarketcap.com/cmc-ai/meteora/latest-updates/
Features at call time
pct_1d: 5.29
pct_7d: -3.76
vol_ratio_eff: 3.94
rsi_1d: 56.75
bbw_pct_rank: 65.35
dist_to_high_20d_pct: 35.40
consec_green_1d: 1
overhead_supply_share: 0.07
upper_wick_ratio_1d: 0.05
lower_wick_ratio_1d: 0.36
rs_vs_btc_7d: -6.54
from_ath_pct: -54.10
Nothing sent to Telegram for this call.