Thesis XDC broke out of its 0.0275-0.0307 base on 27-28 Sep on heavy volume, reaching a high of 0.0384. The 29 Sep candle had a long upper wick, so sellers came in at the top. Price then pulled back into a 0.0321-0.0332 shelf, which held, and today's 00:00 4h candle broke out of that shelf on about 6x normal 4h volume. The next 4h candle had almost no volume, though, and price is now sitting just under the 0.0343-0.0348 supply zone where 30 Sep and 2 Oct got rejected. Buying at 0.0339 gives a poor reward-to-risk ratio. The better trade is a limit buy on a retest of the 0.0332 shelf top, with the stop under the 0.0321 swing low, targeting the 1 Oct high at 0.0361 (about 2.1:1). Crowd read The run from 27 to 29 Sep lined up with XDC appearing at Sibos (28 Sep–1 Oct), and the pullback afterwards was classic sell-the-news. Buyers who chased near 0.036-0.038 are still trapped above and will sell on the way up. The coin isn't trending and retail interest has faded, which is healthy, but without a fresh catalyst this is a slow grind rather than a squeeze. Watch for A pullback into 0.0330-0.0334 where lower wicks hold and 4h closes stay above 0.0332, then fill. Alternatively, a 4h close above 0.0348 on volume above 10M would turn this into a breakout. The ratio is worse there, so take a small size only if the close holds and aim at 0.0383. Wrong if A 4h close back below 0.0325 would mean the volume-backed reclaim failed and price is back in the post-Sibos range, likely heading for 0.0310. If price runs to 0.0348+ without filling the limit, chasing it gives a worse ratio, so skip and re-evaluate. Exit rules · close below 0.0325 (4h): Lost the shelf: the reclaim of 0.0332 has failed and price is back in the range · btc drop pct 4.0: BTC is down 4%: breadth is already weak, so the alt bid disappears · no progress hours 48.0: Two days without getting above entry means the volume wake was a one-candle event Managed exit (half at 1R, trail 1R) not filled yet

Screener volume wake scored 62 (reasons were not kept on this call) Project XDC was at Sibos Miami from 28 Sep to 1 Oct 2026, which matches the 124M-volume spike on 28 Sep and the 0.0384 wick high on 29 Sep. A CMC note on 2 Oct found no coin-specific news behind the pullback. No unlocks, hacks, delistings or legal problems found. About 52% of supply is circulating (FDV $1.29B against market cap $676M). Risks · The 0.0343-0.0348 supply zone (30 Sep close, 2 Oct high) is the first barrier, and 0.0361-0.0364 wicks sit above it, so trapped Sibos buyers can cap the move · The volume spike was one 4h candle (27.5M) followed by a 2M candle, so this may be a single buyer rather than sustained demand · Kraken quote volume is only about $1.7M per day, so fills and the stop can slip · Market breadth is weak: only 34% of the top 200 are up in 24h, total market cap is down 1.8%, and Fear & Greed is at 73 (Greed), where breakouts fail more often · The post-catalyst pattern: the Sibos narrative is spent and nothing new is scheduled Sources https://xinfin.org/events https://coinmarketcap.com/cmc-ai/xdc-network/price-analysis/ Features at call time pct_1d: 3.19 pct_7d: 2.05 vol_ratio_eff: 4.95 rsi_1d: 62.71 bbw_pct_rank: 93.07 dist_to_high_20d_pct: 13.17 consec_green_1d: 2 overhead_supply_share: 0.16 upper_wick_ratio_1d: 0.11 lower_wick_ratio_1d: 0.03 rs_vs_btc_7d: -0.31 from_ath_pct: -81.89