Thesis MON broke above the 0.0319 shelf on 30 Sep on rising volume and ran to 0.036. Since then it has made lower highs (0.0360, 0.0355, 0.0350, 0.0335), and it has now closed back below the breakout level two days running, so this retest is failing rather than holding. The only structure left is a floor at 0.0305–0.0308, which held on 2, 3 and 5 Oct. This is the third test of it, and repeated tests tend to weaken a floor. A bid at 0.0308 with a stop under the floor gives a good ratio to the 0.0352 lower-high zone, but the trade only works if that floor absorbs again, and there is a known event tomorrow that could break it either way. Crowd read The rally was bought on the rumour: Monad teased a privacy launch for 6 Oct and the token jumped about 17% in a day. It is now on CoinGecko's trending list after a roughly 30% move, so retail showed up late and is sitting in the 0.033–0.035 zone. When an event like this arrives, it often gets sold as news. The 24 Nov unlock is also big compared with the market cap, so anyone still holding has a reason to sell into strength. Watch for Two routes to a long. (1) A dip into 0.0305–0.0308 that leaves a long lower wick on the 4h and closes back above 0.0310 while the launch news hits, which means the dip was bought. (2) A 4h close back above 0.0322 with above-average volume after the launch. That reclaims the breakout level, but enter only if the stop under 0.0305 still gives 2:1 to 0.0352. If 0.0305 breaks on volume, drop the idea and look for the next shelf at 0.0285–0.029. Wrong if A 4h close below 0.0305 on rising volume, or the privacy launch landing as a sell-the-news spike: a long upper wick through 0.033 that closes back under 0.0319. Exit rules none set Managed exit (half at 1R, trail 1R) hit stop, -1.00R

Screener retest scored 61 (reasons were not kept on this call) Project Monad is a parallel-EVM Layer 1 backed by Paradigm and Coinbase Ventures. Its team teased a privacy service for 6 Oct ('Privacy is coming'), which drove the 1 Oct jump of about 17%. There is also a recent report of an XSGD stablecoin plan. The big overhang is the first post-cliff unlock on 24 Nov 2026: about 16.6B tokens (16.6% of total supply), worth roughly $521M, which is the largest Q4 unlock against market cap. Phantom wallet has discontinued Monad support. The 120-day 1d data suggests the price low was around 0.016, and the token is 35% below its Nov 2025 all-time high. It is trending on CoinGecko. Risks · The privacy service is expected 6 Oct, within hours. The run-up came from the teaser, so a sell-the-news dump through the 0.0305 floor is quite likely. · CryptoRank, cited by KuCoin, puts the 24 Nov cliff unlock at about 16.6B MON, worth roughly $521M or about 130% of circulating market cap. Only 11.7% of supply circulates, and holders may sell ahead of the cliff. · The 0.0305–0.0308 floor is on its third test with lower highs pressing down on it, which looks like a descending triangle that usually breaks lower. · Phantom wallet dropped Monad support, which hurts retail access. · The Kraken MON/USD book is thin, with about $1.65M of 24h quote volume against tens of millions on other venues. Fills and stop slippage on Kraken can be poor. Sources https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/data-multiple-projects-to-face-major-token-unlocking-in-q4-2026-including-131-6-of-monad-s-market-cap https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/26404 https://app.tokenomics.com/tokenomics/monad/unlocks https://panews.io/articles/01a0f80f-680d-743c-904b-72174d6db37e https://pluang.com/en/news-feed/monad-mon-naik-15-stabilcoin-straitsx https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/monad Features at call time pct_1d: -5.52 pct_7d: 10.30 vol_ratio_eff: 1.18 rsi_1d: 59.64 bbw_pct_rank: 87.13 dist_to_high_20d_pct: 14.32 consec_green_1d: 0 overhead_supply_share: 0.14 upper_wick_ratio_1d: 0.03 lower_wick_ratio_1d: 0.28 rs_vs_btc_7d: 7.68 from_ath_pct: -35.86